The Twice-Forgotten Arm
Psst. In case you have not noticed there is a Sox farmhand that is tearing through AA hitters, and it is not the guy who just threw a no-hitter against the Royals. It is Illinois’ own Michael Bowden. And that’s certainly not a knock on Mr. Masterson even given his recent struggles in Portland, it’s simply that Bowden has been that good.
picture by bestlaidplans.org
Roster moves be damned, there’s no real chance the Sox will call up Bowden and potentially lose one of the guys on the 40 man roster. One of the two remaining spots is reserved for a late season Curt Schilling comeback, and the other is saved for additional roster flexibility. I wouldn’t worry about burning out Bowden’s options either. The kid will be a major leaguer in 3 years.
And even though I think Bowden is the real prize of the Portland rotation, the Sox made the right move for 2008 by bringing up Masterson, who will be able to bolster a weak bullpen during the stretch run. Whether or not Masterson becomes more than that is another issue, he will be set-up man until he can develop a serviceable change-up. There are very few pitchers in the league who can survive with a simple sinker / slider combination.
Actually lets break it down a little bit - and I promise I’ll get to Bowden in a second. Here are the 10 pitchers with the highest ground ball rates and what they throw.
Noticing a trend yet? Even if it’s just a show-me pitch, Masterson needs to be able to throw something on the games when his slider isn’t working, otherwise big-league hitters are going to sit on that sinker. I hated putting Daniel Cabrera on the list because he’s never been a ground ball pitcher until this year, and something tells me his freakishly low BABIP will straighten everything out. Aside from him only Carmona and Cook stand out as not having a 3rd offering, and while I think Masterson’s sinker is good – there isn’t anything in the big leagues that is quite like Carmona’s.
Oh wait this was about Bowden right? Oh yeah… sorry about that. At the beginning of last year there was discussion about whether or not Buchholz and Bowden would be a better pair of prospects than Lester and Papelbon. At equal points of their careers it seems like it may be the new guys.
Of course there are some small caveats. Bowden and Lester were both drafted as high-schoolers, Buchholz out of junior-college, and Papelbon out of Mississippi State (How he’s the one with a college degree I don’t think I’ll ever fully understand). Buchholz at age 22 developed an unreal change-up which only skyrocketed his prospect status, and Lester was rushed to the majors and had his development even further retarded battling lymphoma.
Though I cant help but feel like Bowden has become the forgotten child of the farm system. Last year Buchholz scorched past Bowden and the rest of the farm to make it to the majors. No notice was paid to the fact that Bowden was the only pitcher to dominate in the home run friendly wind tunnel at Lancaster. And this year Bowden seems to be taking a back seat to a pitcher who’s numbers aren’t as strong as his. Bowden ranks #1 on his team in Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP while holding batters to a pithy .207 average against him.
The numbers look good for Bowden, and though its still early on, his numbers very closely resemble Lester’s at a similar point in his career though Lester did have both a slightly higher strikeout and walk rate. Lester would finish the year being named the Eastern League pitcher of the year. If Bowden keeps this up he may not even be around to finish the year in Portland. And having a 22 year old trying to force his way on the 2009 starting rotation mid-season is a great problem to have.
